The Only Way for the U.S. to Reach Herd Immunity Is With COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates

The Only Way for the U.S. to Reach Herd Immunity Is With COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates

© Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg An attendee receives a dose of the Johnson & Johnson Janssen Covid-19 vaccine during an Atlanta Braves baseball game at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., on Friday, May 7, 2021. The Atlanta Braves will be providing free COVID-19 vaccinations for fans during their games Friday and Saturday against the Philadelphia Phillies.

To encourage more people to get a COVID-19 vaccine and reach herd immunity, U.S. government leaders and their corporate partners are now dangling many carrots to hesitant Americans. Free childcare, free car rides, even free beer has been offered. But new evidence is emerging in places like Ohio where, after state health authorities set up a lottery offering millions of dollars to people who got the jab, vaccination rates flatlined after an initial bump.

According to our analysis of Ipsos polling, such incentives won’t persuade about a quarter of American adults. And according to the most recent data, Americans—independent of their vaccination status—report phasing out many of the public health precautions they took over the previous 18 months.

Rather than carrots, reaching herd immunity is likely to require the use of sticks: vaccine mandates.

Health officials have left mandates as a last resort to be employed when all who might be persuaded have been vaccinated. But more than half of unvaccinated Americans say they would not get a vaccination if it were readily available to them. And problematically, our polling shows that the choices of those who remain unvaccinated may create enduring risks to public health, which could expedite the spread of mandates in order to secure places like universities, hospitals, and restaurants. This only becomes more urgent with the rise of the more transmissible Delta variant, which has spread to almost every state in the U.S.

Americans who say they do not intend to get vaccinated and those who plan to get vaccinated but have yet to do so are more likely to engage in “risky” activities this summer than people who are already vaccinated.

Perhaps more problematically, these unvaccinated adults are much less likely to wear masks and maintain a safe distance from others compared with people who have already been vaccinated.

This matters because the risk of COVID-19 infections among everyone—even the vaccinated—is dependent on the level of COVID-19 spread in a community. Epidemiologists believe that herd immunity will require between 75 and 85 percent of Americans to be vaccinated. There also remains some uncertainty about the vulnerability of children under the age of 12, who currently cannot be vaccinated.

When the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) announced on May 13th that Americans fully vaccinated against COVID-19 no longer need to wear masks or physically distance themselves in most indoor and outdoor places, the reversal was based on numerous scientific findings that vaccines would provide enduring protection. However, because “breakthrough” infections depend on how much virus is circulating in a community, the CDC also asked the unvaccinated to take precautions to protect their own health and the health of others.

The new Ipsos data suggest that the unvaccinated are unlikely to hold up their end of the bargain, unless they are compelled to do so.

Unvaccinated adults say they are actually more likely to dine at restaurants, go to movie theaters, attend a sporting event, go to an indoor concert, use a ridesharing service, and go on a cruise this summer—all activities that pose elevated risks of transmission because of close contact with other people.

Despite the risk of contraction and transmission, the unvaccinated are less likely to wear a mask. They are also less likely to say that they have practiced social distancing in the last week.

Of course, this is a mismatch of practices. Those Americans who can now afford to relax the precautions they have taken for 16 months are hesitant to do so, and those who should maintain such precautions say they will not.

As more Americans become vaccinated and since the new CDC guidelines were released, more vaccinated adults have begun to feel comfortable resuming activities previously thought to be too risky and reducing the health precautions they once took. However, polling data suggests that Americans uninterested in the vaccines were less likely to take precautions before they became available anyway, and they are no more likely to do so now.

© Provided by Meredith Corporation

Numerous studies have shown that this population is disproportionately less educated, lower income, rural, younger, Republican, and supportive of former President Donald Trump—who seeded significant distrust in public health authorities and scientists while in the White House. However, those uninterested in the vaccine already had lower levels of trust in the government and in the vaccine in late 2020 and early 2021, when Trump was still in power. So their behavior is less a reflection of recklessness than it is a result of sustained doubt in the severity of the pandemic and the prescribed actions of government authorities.

   

Encouragement from the White House—or their preferred beer brewery—is unlikely to move them.

In fact, the U.S.—which innovated several of the world’s most effective vaccines—features among the world’s most skeptical populations. In an Ipsos study of 15 of the world’s largest economies, only Russia features a smaller share of the unvaccinated population who plan to get the jab. U.S. vaccination rates were recently leapfrogged by numerous countries who received delayed access to the medicine.

© Provided by Meredith Corporation

Once incentives run their course, mandates may be all government institutions and businesses have left at their disposal to end the pandemic in the U.S. The Biden Administration was previously considering issuing a mask-wearing mandate for workplaces, but it is unlikely that the federal government will issue any nationwide mandates for masks or vaccinations. Instead, many businesses and other entities have already started conditioning returns to workplaces and campuses on proof of vaccination.

If the U.S. is to reach herd immunity, the polling suggests they are right to do so. 

New infections rising almost 50% across US; FDA may issue warning on J&J vaccine, report says: Live COVID-19 updates

 

New infections rising almost 50% across US; FDA may issue warning on J&J vaccine, report says: Live COVID-19 updates

COVID booster shots: here's why we may need one in the future

The U.S. averaged 19,455 new COVID-19 cases per day over the last seven days, a 47.5% increase from the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. And 43 states saw an increase in cases last week from the week before, a sign that the pandemic endures in the United States.

© Rahmat Gul, AP A doctor fills a syringe with the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination center in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, July 11, 2021. The COVID-19 vaccines were donated by the United States and delivered through the U.N.-backed COVAX program. Another shipment is expected to arrive later this month. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)

Hospitalizations are rising again. Deaths, a lagging indicator, also appear ready to start climbing. More than 99% of deaths are now among people who have not been vaccinated, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention reports. 

Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, says two-thirds of counties with sustained increases in new infections are in states with low vaccine coverage.

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"But the fact that we are seeing case increases in counties even in higher vaccination states is worrisome," she tweeted. "Anywhere there are pockets of low vax coverage is at risk!"

Also in the news:

►Japan Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on Monday ordered a COVID-19 state of emergency for Tokyo. The plan aims to contain a resurgence in coronavirus infections and curb the movement of people during the Olympics, which run July 23 to Aug 8.

►Jim Nobles, Minnesota’s independent legislative auditor, says he doesn’t have the resources to satisfy a request by lawmakers for a comprehensive study of the state’s COVID-19 response. Democrats have criticized the request as political.

►Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte apologized Monday for what he called “an error of judgment” in relaxing the Netherlands’ coronavirus lockdown, a move that has led to a sharp surge in infections. Rutte has reintroduced some measures to rein in the virus’ spread.

►The chairman of the Miami-Dade County Commission has tested positive for the coronavirus, about four months after he was fully vaccinated. Jose Diaz has been a frequent presence at the Surfside condo collapse site, raising questions about exposure at the site, reported the Miami Herald.

📈 Today's numbers: The U.S. has had more than 33.8 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and more than 607,100 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The global totals: more than 186.9 million cases and more than 4 million deaths. Nearly 159.2 million Americans – 48% of the population – have been fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.

📘 What we're reading: As many adolescents and young adults prepare to return to the classroom in the fall term amid the spread of the delta variant, the lagging vaccination rates among Generation Z are raising concerns among experts.

Keep refreshing this page for the latest news. Want more? Sign up for USA TODAY's Coronavirus Watch newsletter to receive updates directly to your inbox and join our Facebook group.

FDA to warn about possible link between J&J shot and autoimmune disorder, report says

The Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine is once again raising concerns.

The Food and Drug Administration is planning to issue a warning about a possible link between that vaccine and the autoimmune disorder known as Guillain-Barré syndrome, the Washington Post reported.

There have been about 100 instances of the possible connection between the vaccine and the syndrome, mostly among men and in many cases among those age 50 and older, the newspaper said, adding that 12.8 million doses of the J&J shot have been administered.

The CDC says on its website that people who have had Guillain-Barré Syndrome can be vaccinated against COVID, and that no cases of the disorder were reported in clinical trials for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. One case was reported in J&J trials.

Use of the J&J vaccine, hailed for its single-shot convenience, was paused for 10 days in April while federal health agencies investigated reports of six women developing rare but severe blood clots within two weeks of receiving the jab. The agencies later determined the vaccine's benefits outweigh its risks.

Rash of summer camp outbreaks could be a harbinger for school year

Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 at summer camps in Texas, Illinois, Florida, Missouri and Kansas, some spreading into communities, have some wondering whether it could be a preview of what may happen in the upcoming school year as the U.S. grapples with another surge in coronavirus infections.

In the Houston area, more than 130 youth and adults tested positive for the virus in connection to a church camp. “In some cases, entire families are sick,” pastor Bruce Wesley of Clear Creek Community Church said on Facebook.

In Illinois, health officials said 85 teens and adults at a Christian youth camp in mid-June tested positive. In Kansas, about 50 people were infected in an outbreak linked to a church summer camp last month not far from Wichita.

JoAnn Martin, administrator of the public health agency in Pettis County, Missouri, near where another summer camp outbreak took place, lamented the difficulty in getting people to take the virus seriously and get vaccinated.

“It has been a challenge since the first case,” she said. “You have people who still say it is not real. You have people who say it is a cold. You have people who say what is the big deal. You have people who say it is all a government plot.”

Urban Missouri hospital battles surge sweeping rural communities

Mercy Hospital in Springfield, Missouri, has opened its sixth COVID-19 ward as the delta variant rages in the state’s southwest region. Chief Administrative Officer Erik Frederick tweeted that the hospital needed at most five COVID-19 wards last year, when the coronavirus was peaking across the nation. The hospital was treating 133 virus patients as of Sunday.

“Many local rural communities don’t have high vaccination rates,” Frederick wrote. “They also don’t have a hospital. Get sick, come to Springfield. I think that’s getting left out of the narrative.”

Pfizer, health officials to discuss vaccine booster shots

Representatives from Pfizer and federal health officials, who sent out conflicting signals about the need for vaccine booster shots, are planning to meet as soon as today. Last week, the American pharmaceutical giant and its partner BioNTech said they would pursue U.S. and European regulatory approval for a third dose of their COVID-19 vaccine, given the spread of variants and data they said showed diminished vaccine potency six months after the initial shots. U.S. officials, however, say they want to see the data before recommending booster shots. 

The issue is complicated by vaccine hesitancy in the U.S. – and the fact that much of the world hasn't obtained access to first shots of vaccine.

"Right now, given the data that the CDC and the FDA has, they don't feel that we need to tell people right now you need to be boosted," Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top Biden administration adviser, said Sunday on CNN in response to the news.

California to require face masks at schools this fall, diverging from CDC

California will require that masks be worn at schools when classrooms open this fall, despite new guidance issued Friday from the CDC that says vaccinated teachers and students don’t need to wear face coverings inside school buildings.

Ahead of new school guidelines expected next week, health officials in California said Friday that requiring face coverings will allow all schools to reopen this fall for full in-person instruction. California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said that not all schools can accommodate physical distancing of at least 3 feet or more, so the best preventive measure is wearing masks indoors.

“We believe that with masking and with testing, we can get kids back to in-person 100% in our schools,” Ghaly said.

Ghaly noted the CDC guidance released Friday says that when it is not possible to maintain at least 3 feet of physical distance, “it is especially important to layer multiple other prevention strategies, such as indoor masking.”

California’s decision around schools comes as districts across the state prepare to open next month for full-time learning and the state continues to encourage residents, including kids as young as 12 years old, to get vaccinated.

– Stockton Record

Bonus pay for essential workers varied widely across states

For putting their health on the line during the coronavirus pandemic, prison guards in Missouri got an extra $250 per paycheck. Teachers in Georgia received $1,000 bonuses. And in Vermont, nurses, janitors, retail workers and many others got as much as $2,000.

Over the past year, about one-third of U.S. states have used federal COVID-19 relief aid to reward workers considered essential who dutifully reported to jobs during the pandemic. But who qualified for those bonuses – and how much they received – varied widely, according to an Associated Press review. While some were paid thousands of dollars, others with similar jobs elsewhere received nothing.

As society reopens, momentum to provide pandemic hazard pay appears to be fading – even though the federal government has broadened the ability of state and local governments to provide retroactive pay under a $350 billion aid package enacted by President Joe Biden in March.

So far, only a few states have committed to paying workers extra with money from the American Rescue Plan.

Contributing: Mike Stucka, USA TODAY; The Associated Press.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New infections rising almost 50% across US; FDA may issue warning on J&J vaccine, report says: Live COVID-19 updates

Newsmax viewers are nearly twice as likely to refuse the vaccine than Fox News watchers, new poll finds

 

Newsmax viewers are nearly twice as likely to refuse the vaccine than Fox News watchers, new poll finds

A recent survey on news consumption found differences in vaccine hesitancy among conservatives.

Newsmax and OAN viewers were twice as likely as Fox News's audience to refuse the COVID-19 vaccine.

Vaccine hesitancy remains a major challenge to the Biden administration.

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A recent survey on how news consumption affects policy views found that Fox News viewers are much less vaccine hesitant than those who tune into further right-wing cable channels Newsmax and One America News Network (OAN).

In a summary of the findings from the Public Religion Research Institute published on the data news site FiveThirtyEight, a shifting landscape in conservative media emerged as a possible explanation for the disparity.

It also showed how news consumption correlates with not just vaccine hesitancy — one of the biggest issues facing the Biden administration in its efforts to bring the US fully out of the pandemic — but also belief in QAnon conspiracy theories and the "Big Lie" that the 2020 election was stolen.

For Republicans who identified as getting most of their news from Fox, 54% said they've either already taken the COVID-19 vaccine or plan to get it as soon as possible. Just 32% of GOP Newsmax and OAN viewers said the same.

As for those who said they would refuse the vaccine, 16% of Fox watchers said they would compared to 32% for Newsmax and OAN.

In the FiveThirtyEight write up of the study, Public Religion Research Institute Director Natalie Jackson cautioned that while the survey found news consumption habits and vaccine views to be correlated, tuning into Newsmax or OAN instead of Fox does not necessarily cause someone to be more vaccine hesitant.

Drawing on the institute's past surveys and ones from other pollsters in the space, Jackson explained how Fox News is no longer the consensus choice for conservative respondents with the most extreme views.

The institute's polling found a shift that began in the aftermath of the 2020 election, when Newsmax and OAN were much more willing to run with former President Donald Trump's lies about it being stolen than most Fox News hosts were.

Jackson touched on the complicated realignment in conservative media and how the difference between the two audiences on vaccine hesitancy was replicated in views on QAnon and the "Big Lie."

"We don't yet know whether Republicans are choosing their different media sources based on preexisting views, or whether the media sources are actively shaping those views," Jackson writes. "It's likely that both forces are at play. But what we do know is that far-right news sources are attracting a small but growing proportion of Republicans — many of whom either already held or developed extreme views — while Fox News, once the go-to source for many on the fringe of the party, may no longer be a hotbed for some of the GOP's most extreme beliefs."

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